术语“黑色星期一”的详细信息

英译术语:

Black Monday

汉语语境:

20世纪80年代以前，经典线性计量经济学占着绝对主流的地位，但在实际应用中，经典线性时间模型，如标准的线性时间序列模型(如AR(p)或ARMA(p，q)等)忽视模型结构变化等，导致这一类模型用于预测20世纪70年代石油危机的失败，以及无法解释1987年的“黑色星期一”现象，因为经济学家至今也没找到令人信服的引起股市崩盘的显著的信息变化。基于上述原因，传统线性时间序列计量建模受到越来越多的挑战。与此同时，上世纪60年代兴起的非线性科学，正在改变人们对现实世界的传统看法，受到了科学界的日益重视。随着计算技术的发展，为经济学者提供了越来越多的可供选择的非线性理论模型来刻画经济变量中的非线性关系。然而，不幸的是，将理论模型转化为可检验的非线性时间序列计量模型常常并不是一件容易的事情。

英语语境:

Before 1980s, classical linear time series econometrics had the dominant place.However, in practical application, classical linear time series models, such as standard linear time series models (such as AR(p) / ARMA(p, q)) ignore structure change of the model, which leads to failure of forecasting 1970s, oil crisis and can not explain the phenomenon of“Black Monday”happened in 1987.And until now, economists can not find out significant information variation which led to breakdown of the stock markets. For above reasons, traditional linear time series modeling is faced to more and more challenges. At the same time, nonlinear science developed from 1960s is changing traditional view of people towards the world and more importance is attached to it by science circles. With the development of computer technology, more and more nonlinear theoretical models can be chosen to depict nonlinear relationship between variables studied by economists. Unfortunately, theoretical modeling often does not translate easily into a testable time series econometric model.